Are You Helping Out On Thursday? Good. Elections Aren’t Won Online.

In 1970, John Bochel and David Denver carried out what may have been the first field experiment in British political science (or so, at least, Denver speculates in his essay “Two tower blocks in Dundee: constituency campaigning“). The point of the experiment was to assess the level of impact of local campaigning on election results. In other words: does canvassing have any effect on the way people vote?

As the site of the experiment, Denver and Bochel selected two tower blocks in a safe Labour ward in Dundee. “With the co-operation of the local Labour Party,” Denver writes, “we canvassed the people in one block thoroughly and ‘knocked up’ supporters on polling day. Residents of the other received only a single leaflet from the candidate.” Studies following the election showed that the impact of canvassing had been signicant. The tower block that had been canvassed had a 10% higher turnout than the other block; Labour’s vote share was also higher in the former than in the latter — 81% compared to 77%.

Since 1970, numerous studies have supported the results found in Bochel and Denver’s experiment. Telephone canvassing, door-to-door canvassing, leafletting — it all makes a difference. And, crucially, it could make all the difference. Denver, in “Two Tower Blocks”, cites a report published in 2010 that suggests that

“an above average Liberal Democrat campaign could boost the party’s vote share by 3.7 percentage points while for Labour the figure [is] 1.7 points and for the Conservatives just 0.8 points. Nonetheless, these are not increases to be sneered at in tight contests. Labour won six seats from the Conservatives by 1.7 points or less in the 2010…”

The Green Party will fight a number of tight contests in the General Election of 2017. On June 8th, armies of Tories and Labour supporters will be out on the streets, knocking on doors and offering to drive voters to the polling stations. The Green Party needs you to be there, too. In Sheffield Central they do, in Brighton Pavilion they do, in Isle of Wight they do, in Holborn and St Pancras they do, in Bristol West they do — and the list is extensive.

So be there on Thursday, and help make sure that the Greens give the Reds and the Blues a real fight in GE2017.

Stop the Bleeding: #VoteGreen2017 in Bristol and Brighton

Photo: GP party election broadcast


According to recent GE2017 predictions — including the one you see below — the Conservative Party is currently set to increase their majority in the House of Commons by a significant margin. Although the exact figures vary, most of these studies indicate that the Tories will take up around 400 seats after June 8th. Recent predictions also suggest that the Green Party may lose its majority in Brighton Pavilion.

pred

Theresa May has repeatedly said that she wants Britons to vote Conservative in 2017 on the basis of two principle ideas: 1) that the Tories offer “strong and stable leadership” in the nation’s best interest, and 2) that a stronger Conservative majority will serve to strengthen her hand as she negotiates the terms of Brexit with the EU27.

I question the validitity of these for several reasons.

Strong and stable leadership? Now, I know that I’ve said this before on this blog, but I’ll say it again: when so many Britons rely on food banks; when so many Britons are homeless; when the economy has grown but real wages have gone down by 10%; when the government’s deficit reduction targets demand severe cuts to disability benefits; when poverty affects one in four British children; when the NHS is doing worse and worse for each passing year; and when the government fails to design policies that make meeting the targets set out in the Paris Agreement a possibility, then I can’t help but wonder what national interests the Conservative Party purports to serve, and what “strong and stable leadership” means in practice.

A stronger negotiating hand? When PM May argues that a vote for the Conservatives in 2017 is a vote for a stronger negotiating hand in meetings with the EU27, I don’t think that’s what she actually means. The EU, as has recently been suggested, doesn’t care all that much about what the UK government looks like. So what May really seems to be saying, is that she wants to shut down Brexit opposition inside the House of Commons. She knows, as research shows, that a majority of Britons want Brexit negotiations to move ahead. She also knows that many think that the Brexit process is moving forward too slowly. At a time when the Labour Party is historically impopular, a chance to not only shut down opposition to Brexit, but also opposition in general, has thus presented itself.

Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion) and Molly Scott Cato (Bristol West) represent an ideological direction which, in many ways, is diametrically opposed to that of the Conservative Party. In the General Election of 2015, the more than a million Britons that voted for Green Party candidates proved that this ideological direction enjoys widespread support. In my eyes, it would mean a terrible loss for democracy in the UK if the Green Party failed to achieve representation in the House of Commons after June 8th. If we are to prevent the General Election of 2017 from becoming the election of the diminishing opposition — the opposition: the aspect of Parliament that most directly serves to hold the government to account — then the time to wake up is now.

Green Party candidates such as Caroline Lucas and Molly Scott Cato will not only hold the government to account, but they will bring into Parliament a set of innovative ideas that promote a greener economy and a more equal society. To cite from this excellent article by the Bristol Green Society:

“Greens are pushing a ‘radical’ agenda, which in reality are measures that would simply bring social justice to the heart of British society. We are fiercely pro-refugee and consistently challenge the hateful rhetoric around migrants that dominate the UK’s political agenda. We are fighting for a fair Brexit, with the chance for voters to have their say in the final deal with a ratification referendum. We pledge to scrap nuclear weapons and use the money to better our public services. We believe in a benefit system that works for all, and aim to ultimately establish a universal basic income because, in the 5th richest country in the world, food banks should not be in such high demand. We are proud to have consistently demonstrated unwavering support for the rights of LGBTQIA+ people, minority ethnic groups, women and disabled people.”

Many of the Green Party’s ideas are not politics as usual, and they deserve representation in the governing bodies of the UK. Green Party candidate such as Caroline Lucas and Molly Scott Cato critically and constructively address many of the issues that increase levels of inequality in the UK, and they are firmly pro-Europe.

To stop the bleeding and to keep the Tories from gaining a crushing majority — to make sure that the interests of all people are represented in the House of Commons after June 8th, and to make sure that Brexit isn’t a deal for the few — vote Green in #GE2017.